Heads Up Poker Hand Odds
In this lesson we’re going to run through a number of heads-up match-ups that will help give you an idea of where you stand in a variety of pre-flop situations when playing hold’em. Be aware that we’re only going to focus on individual hand match-ups. When playing hold’em it’s essential that you put your opponent on a range of hands, rather than specific holdings. However, knowing the odds of common pre-flop match-ups is a good starting point. Pick out and study what will help you. While it’s not essential that these statistics be committed to memory, it won’t hurt you if you do.
Let’s start by looking at hand match-ups when holding a pair:
Pair vs. Pair
The higher pair is an 80 percent favourite. We can get very technical and highlight the fact that if the underpair didn’t have any clean suits and/or the maximum number of straight outs then the high pair’s equity would increases by one or two percent.
Heads up requires a much different strategy than a full table. We enter more pots (open a wider range) because a single opponent is less likely to have a better hand than if we had 9 opponents. Omaha Holdem Odds Calculator. Omaha Hi/Lo Odds Calculator. Holdem Preflop Odds. These tables are computed by simulating or enumerating millions or billions of hands to give some useful numbers for playing poker. Texas Holdem 10 Player Preflop Odds. Texas Holdem Heads-Up Preflop Odds. Texas Holdem Preflop Nut Odds. Omaha Hi Lo Preflop Odds. Math is the underpinning of poker and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it you will go broke. One statistic that hasn’t been mentioned, and it’s one that I particularly like is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1.
Pair vs. Overcards
This is the classic coin flip hand that you’ll see many times late in tournaments with one player being all-in. The term coin flip indicates an even money situation which is really a 55 to 45 percent situation, as the pair is a slight favourite.
Pair vs. Undercards
In this situation the pair is normally about a 5-to-1 favourite and can vary depending on whether the two undercards are suited and/or connectors.
Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard
The pair is about a 70 percent favourite. Another example of this holding would be J-J against A-9. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs while the favourite has redraws.
Pair vs. Overcard and one of that pair
The classic example of this situation is the confrontation between a pair of cowboys and big slick. The A-K has three outs and it becomes a 70-30 percent situation or a 2.3-to-1 dog for the cowboys. This is a far cry from the next situation where even though one of the pair is matched the other card is lower.
Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair
The non pair has to hit its undercard twice or make a straight or flush to prevail. The pair is better than a 90 percent favourite or slightly better than 10-to-1 odds. I’ll take those odds anytime.
Pair vs. Lower suited connectors
You see this match-up late in tournaments when a player is getting desperate and pushes all-in with middle suited connectors. A hand such as Q-Q against 7-6 suited would be a prime example. The pair is a strong favourite to win.
Pair vs. Higher suited connectors
Here is the real coin flip situation. A pair of eights heads-up against a suited Q-J is a fifty-fifty proposition. The higher suited cards would have an edge against a lower pair, such as 2’s or 3’s, since the board itself can sometimes destroy little pairs.
Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non Pairs)
The following heads-up confrontations contain no pairs.
Two high cards vs. Two undercards
The two higher cards are usually a 65% favourite to win, but it can vary depending on whether any of the cards are suited and/or connectors.
High card, low card vs. Two middle cards
In this match-up the high card gives it the edge. But it’s only a marginal winner, approximately 57% to the hand containing the high card.
High card, middle card vs. Second highest, low card
The edge is increased by around 5% when the low card becomes the third highest card, as shown in this example, which gives approx 62% to 38% for high card/middle card combination.
High card, same card vs. Same card, low card
In this example the A-J is in a very strong position. If we discount any flush or straight possibilities, it only leaves the player holding J-8 with three outs (the three remaining 8’s).
Same high card, high kicker vs. Same card, low kicker
The high kicker gives this hand a fairly big edge. It’s very common for A-K run into A-Q, A-J, and lower, and it’s why Ace-King is such a powerful hand, particularly at the business end of no-limit hold’em tournaments when people move all-in with any sort of Ace.
Statistical Variations
Poker Odds Table
For any math maniacs reading this who do not find these odds precise enough, I acknowledge that the math is rounded and for the most part does not take into account the possibilities of ties and back door straights and flushes. What players need to be equipped with is the general statistical match-up – not the fact that in the example of a pair of eights against a suited Q-J the percents are exactly 50.61 for the eights to 48.99 for the suited connectors with the balance going to potential ties. I call that a fifty-fifty proposition.
Of greater importance than quibbling over tenths of a percent is the fact that in most heads-up confrontations you can never be a prohibitive underdog. That is one reason why poker is so challenging and fun. Of course, while true, I’m not attempting to embolden the reader to ignore the odds and become a maniac. Math is the underpinning of poker and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it you will go broke.
One statistic that hasn’t been mentioned, and it’s one that I particularly like is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1. It’s my favourite statistic because it provides me with almost total confidence when I’m playing heads up and receive pocket Aces that I’m the boss! That confident feeling lasts right up to the river when my Aces get cracked by some rotten piece of cheese which my opponent elected to play. As mentioned already, rarely are you a prohibitive underdog – so remember that to keep those losing hands in perspective.
Related Lessons
By Tom 'TIME' Leonard
Tom has been writing about poker since 1994 and has played across the USA for over 40 years, playing every game in almost every card room in Atlantic City, California and Las Vegas.
If you're new to the heads up game, you can really get crushed by rushing in blindly. Proper heads up strategy is vastly different than normal No Limit Hold'em Strategy, and you need to make the correct adjustments in order to beat your opponents and make money. I recommend following the 10 tips below to help you get started and learn the basics, then read the rest of our heads up poker strategy to fine tune your game. Good luck.
Tip #1 - Open it Up
The first tip you need is to open up your starting hand ranges. Since you only have two players at the table, the average starting hand that sees the flop is going to be much worse than at a normal 9-handed table. Because of this you should open up your starting hand range.
You can't afford to wait for premium hands while playing heads up because you're in the blinds every hand. I recommend playing the majority of your hands as the big blind, and playing damn near every single hand when you're the dealer. Learn more differences between heads up and 9 handed poker.
Hold Em Poker Hand Odds
Tip #2 - Play Your Position
Position becomes a huge factor in heads up poker, because you are either in the best position or in the worst position every hand: there is no in between. Like I mentioned before, I recommend playing every single hand when you're in dealer position. When you're the dealer, you'll post the small blind, act first preflop, and act last on the flop and beyond. When you're the small blind, you'll post the big blind, act last preflop, and act first on the flop and beyond.
Because of this, you want to be really aggressive preflop as the dealer, and raise with a wide range of hands (think any pocket pair, any suited connector, and two big cards, etc). Also, you should be more conservative as the big blind, and respect raises from the dealer.
Tip #3 - Remember Hand Values
As I mentioned in tip #1, the starting hand values go way up in heads up poker. The same goes for showdown hands. The average winning hand in heads up poker will be much worse than the average winning hand at a 9-handed game, so adjust accordingly. Even hands like middle pair or second worst pair are still decent hands and will probably win an uncontested pot, so bet them out.
Tip #4 - Semi-Bluff When Possible
A great way to pick up a bunch of pots in heads up poker is by firing out smallish bets into un raised pots. When I'm playing heads up I like to bet a ton of flops as long as I get any piece; even a straight draw or bottom pair is worth taking a shot on the flop. If my opponent calls I'll slow down, but most passive opponents will toss basically any hand but top pair or maybe second pair to a bet.
Tip #5 - Spot Bluff Attempts
This is basically the opposite of the above tip. If you're playing an aggressive opponent, you'll have to make a stand to prevent constant semi-bluffs and preflop raises. I like to re-raise on occasion preflop, and to call the majority of the flop bets to see if my opponent will bet again on the turn and river. Even if you only have middle pair you should look him/her up to keep them honest, or he/she will continue to pummel you in every pot.
Tip #6 - Make Value Bets
This relates to tip #3 because with lower winning hands you'll have to extract value from hands you normally wouldn't. For example, when you have middle pair on the river you should bet because it is likely you're ahead and will get called by third pair or worse. Also, when you have an extremely strong hand I like to make small bets on the flop, turn, and a larger bet on the river to get maximum value out of my opponent by reeling them in.
Tip #7 - Adjust to your Opponent
Throughout the course of a heads up battle, you'll gain reads on your opponent, and he/she will gain reads on your play as well. As you pick up common plays and tendencies of your opponent, you need to make adjustments to counter their most used moves. For example, if you notice that your opponent is always checking the flop and betting the turn when he/she flops top pair, make sure to fold more on the turn if that same situation comes up.
Tip #8 - Switch up your Game
This is just the opposite of the last tip. As you're picking up reads on your opponent, he/she will be doing the same. Because of this you need to switch up your play to keep them guessing, especially if you are in a long heads up battle that spans over an hour. To keep your opponents on their toes, make sure to alternate between betting flops and checking them when you hit, and throw in an occasional strange play like a big bluff or a check-raise. Learn more about switching up your game.
Tip #9 - Be a Finisher
This is an important tip for heads up players. When you battle your opponent down to a small stack, you have to finish him/her off and not let him/her back into the match. To do this, you can't give them any easy double ups or get lazy and call off big bets. The easiest way to let a crippled opponent back into a match is to call preflop all-ins with a poor hand just to try to knock them out. Continue to play your normal game, and you'll finish them off quickly.
Best Video Poker Odds
Tip #10 - Stick to Your Bankroll
One common mistake that new players make is playing heads up cash tables with their whole bankroll. This is a big mistake, and will almost surely leave you broke. I recommend never playing with more than 1/10th of your entire bankroll if you're a casual player, or more than 1/50th of your stack if you're a professional or serious player.